Uh-oh: It’s already crunch time for scaling nascent methods of pulling CO2 from the atmosphere so they can play their needed role in limiting temperature rise, a new analysis finds, Ben writes.
Driving the news: The report from Oxford University and other researchers finds a large gap between what nations are planning and what’s needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.
Closing it demands fast deployment of tech like direct air capture, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and methods to speed CO2 uptake in rock formations — not just “conventional” techniques like forest growth that now account for almost all removal.
Why it matters: The next decade is “crucial” for “novel” CO2 removal (CDR) methods because levels needed after 2050 “will only be feasible if we see substantial new deployment in the next ten years, novel CDR’s formative phase.”
Yes, but: CDR is a complement to cutting emissions, not a replacement.
Threat level: The analysis finds that no countries have yet pledged to scale novel CDR by 2030 as part of their pledges under the Paris deal.
Zoom in: Various scenarios for holding temperature rise to 1.5°C-2°C above preindustrial levels see differing amounts of CDR, but “more” is the operative word.
“Averaging across scenarios, novel CDR increases by a factor of 30 by 2030 (and up to about 540 in some scenarios) and by a factor of 1,300 (up to about 4,900 in some scenarios) by mid-century,” the report states.
What’s next: The report calls for “urgent and comprehensive policy support that is tailored to specific national contexts.”
Full report…Twitter thread by co-author Oliver Geden of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs