Declining plant health could mean increased food prices for already constrained American consumers, experts tell Axios‘ Ayurella Horn-Muller.
Driving the news: It might not be obvious why the health of plants is a contributing factor to food shortages in developed countries.
- But there’s a direct connection — when they’re diseased, there’s less food to go around, and prices rise accordingly.
- A heady cocktail of climate impacts mixed with conservation failures is contributing to the problem.
How it works: Warming temperatures fueled by climate change are increasing the risk of plant pathogens and pests spreading into new ecosystems.
- Plus, higher temperatures add extra stress on plants, which can make them more vulnerable and severely impacted by diseases and destructive insects.
What they’re saying: “Plant health can impact our food supply, our food security,” Tim Widmer, a senior Agriculture Department expert on crop health, tells Axios.
- If enough staple crops are devoured by insects or become diseased, Widmer says U.S. consumer food prices — which are already substantially higher than average — could climb in response.
- “Now with climate change, that too, is putting an extra pressure on our food supply, in terms of plant health,” says Widmer, who’s with USDA’s Agricultural Research Service.
The intrigue: The relationship between crop production and food security in developing countries has been well established, but the impacts on wealthier nations, where food insecurity is more of a social problem, have been less clear.
- The U.S. isn’t “immune” to the impacts of declining food production, per the CDC.
- According to the agency, food insecurity rises as the cost of food increases, and so do rates of micronutrient malnutrition, which occurs when healthy foods are inaccessible or people go hungry.
- “Here in the U.S., I think we have taken food for granted, because we’ve always had a good supply,” Widmer says, noting that the COVID pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, such as nationwide grocery shortages.
What we’re watching: A 2022 report by the Environmental Defense Fund forecasts that under a moderate emissions scenario, the U.S. will see “significant climate burdens” on crop production in the Midwest as soon as 2030.
- The report looks at projected changes in seasonal temperatures, but does not assess the impacts of pests and diseases, which are responsible for anywhere between 20% to 40% of losses to global crop production, per the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.