A weather phenomenon about 100,000 feet above the Arctic may trigger late-winter surges of cold and snow across parts of Europe, Eurasia and North America, Andrew writes.
Why it matters: Known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, it can weaken and displace the polar vortex, sending cold further south.
How it works: These events occur when large atmospheric waves surge upward beyond the troposphere.
Of note: SSW events can help support the hypothesis that human-caused global warming may, in some cases, paradoxically lead to Arctic outbreaks and heavy snow.
Yes, but: The relationship between climate change and changes to the polar vortex and broader jet stream is still under active study.
Zoom in: It’s clear this SSW event will occur this week, and be quite strong, scientists tell Axios.
- Key unknowns are the precise effects it will have on weather patterns in the lower atmosphere, and when they will occur.
- In 2018, a SSW event was followed by frigid and snowy weather across Europe, with icy winds dubbed “The Beast from the East.”
What they’re saying: “After the next 10 days, there is uncertainty about what happens in the stratosphere and its interaction with the troposphere,” Andrea Lopez Lang, an atmospheric scientist at SUNY Albany, told Axios via email.
- Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at AER, said much of the cold air may spill into Canada and the northern U.S. by early March.