Russia is a diminished but still very powerful player in global oil markets even as its revenues take a hit, Ben writes.

Driving the news: Its production and exports have “held up relatively well” despite sanctions, the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly outlook notes.

• Russian crude exports rose in January while refined products held steady.
• Export revenues, however, were down 36% year-over-year last month as it sold barrels at a discount (the Urals grade averaged $49.48 per barrel).

What they’re saying: The Minneapolis Fed posted an interview with their own Neil Mehrotra, until recently a senior Treasury Department official who help craft the G7-led price cap on Russian oil prices.

• “It appears to be working in the sense that oil markets have not been significantly disrupted, and Russia appears to be collecting lower revenues than prior to the price cap,” he said.

Catch up fast: It’s an unusual market intervention aimed at keeping Russian barrels on global markets while trying to limit revenues for the Putin regime.

• The crude cap began in December and the refined products cap just began this month.

Zoom in: Russia has been boosting shipments to India and China as the EU has banned its seaborne crude.

• But Mehrotra argues the cap is indirectly affecting those transactions.
• “They have leverage now, and they’re able to demand a relatively low market price for Russian oil.”

Yes, but: The current $60 crude cap still enables Russia to pull in considerable revenues — intentionally so to maintain incentive to produce, he said.

What’s next: Later this year, if Chinese demand comes back and other economies avoid recession, “the price of oil could go up significantly and $60 could become much more of a binding target.” Full interview