Global exploration and production investment jumped in 2022, but must keep growing to reach $640 billion in 2030 to meet long-term needs, a new analysis argues, Ben writes.

Why it matters: “A cumulative $4.9 trillion will be needed between 2023 and 2030 to meet market needs and prevent a supply shortfall,” per the International Energy Forum and S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The big picture: IEF — a coalition of energy ministers from over 70 nations — and S&P say cash-rich companies have capital to invest more even as they prioritize shareholder returns and debt payments.

• “The question is now, will companies re-invest, and if so, where?”
• The “primary hurdle” has “shifted from capital availability to willingness to invest.”

The intrigue: Impossible to see, the future is. A separate IER report this week takes stock of many conflicting analyses of future oil demand in decades ahead.

• But the new investment report says that more spending is needed to offset declines from existing projects “even if demand growth slows toward a plateau.”