HOUSTON — The energy transition is the common thread running through nearly every panel discussion and presentation at the big CERAWeek by S&P Global confab this week — but executives don’t agree on what it means, Andrew writes.

  • To oil and gas CEOs, the energy transition means investing in cleaner technologies, but also producing more fossil fuels for decades to come.
  • To the Biden administration, it means making those fossil fuels as clean as possible, while pushing for more renewables as fast as possible.

Why it matters: The climate science findings are not subtle about what the energy transition means: a rapid, sustained shift away from fossil fuels.

The big picture: A 2021 International Energy Agency report found that in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, no new oil and gas fields can be developed.

  • An analysis published late last year found the world only has nine years left at 2022 emissions levels before the 1.5°C (2.7°F) temperature target is reached.
  • Scientists warn that exceeding this threshold boosts the odds of potentially disastrous consequences, such as setting off the runaway melting of a large portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the loss of warm water coral reefs.

Driving the news: In one panel after another, oil and gas CEOs have extolled the virtues of pursuing an energy transition in which high carbon fuels are substituted for lower-carbon sources.

Yes, but: When the math of each company’s plans are added up, they would set the world on course to blow through the remaining “carbon budget,” which measures how much more we can emit before reaching or exceeding the Paris Agreement’s global average surface temperature targets — 1.5°C and 2°C.

Zoom in: Oil and gas CEOs say they need to boost investments in fossil fuels to meet growing demand in developing markets and provide energy security to the industrialized world.

  • For example, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth touted his company’s goals of expanding production in the Permian Basin and Kazakhstan.
  • Nawaf Al-Sabah, the CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., said his company plans to raise output by 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2035, citing the relatively low carbon intensity of its oil supplies.
  • Many companies see deploying tech that strips emissions from fossil fuels as key to staying in their core business longer, rather than rapidly diversifying away from oil and gas.

The other side: To the Biden administration, represented here by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and other senior officials, the energy transition means abating the carbon from fossil fuel sources that will be a piece of the energy puzzle for many years to come, while dramatically expanding renewable technologies and deployment.

  • She pitched oil and gas companies on using their resources, from brainpower to machinery, to make advances in producing renewable energy.

The bottom line: Ashvin Dayal, a development and climate expert for the Rockefeller Foundation, told Axios that some energy companies are pitching continued fossil fuel production, particularly of natural gas, so that developing nations can grow their energy use.

  • But “the real prize,” Dayal said, would be to help developing countries leapfrog toward renewables.

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